Niger – not to be confused with its neighbor, Nigeria – is a
West African nation in the Sahel region known for onion and livestock
production. It is also ranked 188 of 188 nations on the United Nations Human
Development Index (UNHDI) meaning it is the least developed country in the
world.[1]
The nation’s people are plagued by poverty, illiteracy, food insecurity, and
literally plagues of locusts.
So, why is the US building a $100
million drone base there? From a US national security perspective, it makes
sense – in closer proximity to Boko Haram and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM), the location demonstrates an increased emphasis on counterterrorism
operations in the region. This is especially relevant considering Boko Haram’s increasing
collaboration with ISIS. Why, however, has Niger allowed the US to use its
territory to conduct drone operations? Was this decision calculated to align itself
with a military superpower or was it a decision coerced through decades of development
and aid promises to the impoverished nation?
Aligning with a superpower sounds like an excellent way for
a small nation to make its mark and protect itself. Niger has sent troops to
battle Boko Haram in Nigeria, and is presently coping with an influx of over 115,000 displaced
Nigerians in the Diffa region. There is no doubt that the country certainly
stands to benefit in the short term through the ongoing training of its own
armed forces and improved intelligence gathering in order to prevent attacks by
Boko Haram. The long-term consequences deserve analysis, however, considering
the US’s long history of finding itself in precarious situations once
instability descends on a country – as is prone to happen when leaders attempt
to retain power, and as happened only six years ago in Niger. In cases like these, the US finds itself with
a dilemma: prop up a dictator or lose a military ally – the former promises
disastrous consequences for civilians (as in the case of Hissène
Habré), but the latter compromises US national security interests.
Even if Niger remains politically stable despite having many
of the risk factors for instability as outlined in the UNHDI, it is unclear how
aid-dependent countries like Niger are freely able to engage in such
high-stakes diplomacy with western nations at all. If they are, then when an MQ-9
Reaper inevitably strikes its first target in the region, Niger should be
prepared to make its alliance permanent. And with the accuracy of drone strikes
in question
yet again, Niger may have taken on more than it can manage.
[1]
Somalia and North Korea are not in the rankings. Find the full 2015 UNHDI
report at http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2015_human_development_report.pdf.
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